Opixia

Terrorist Attacks in New York and Washington (9/14 - 9/19)

I was in Washington, DC when the terrorists struck. Here are my experiences and thoughts.

For my thoughts about Air Safety, even before these latest attacks, click here.

Click here for reports from Thursday, September 20th to Tuesday, September 25th

Click here for reports from Tuesday, September 11th to Thursday, September 13th

Wednesday, September 19, 2001

I won't go so far as saying that things are "settling in" here in Washington, but it is certainly starting to SEEM that way. Security is evolving incrementally. It seems like a routine is developing.

There's a congressional hearing today of the plight of the airlines. It will be packed, but I'll go anyway. Sometimes the discussions in the hallway while standing in line are more interesting that the hearing itself.

The best news I read yesterday was that the Israelis and the Palestinians may finally be getting closer to pulling back from their escalating violence. A rapprochement might make it easier for the U.S. to develop a broader, sounder coalition against terrorism with the Arab states in that region of the world. Iran and Syria have been heavily involved with terrorists and some "calm" with the Israelis will help. We have enough problems with Iraq without needing to fight a war with Iran and Syria as well.

Despite the fact that the administration has been talking about a "long" and "dirty" war, it is important to realize that the administration is not known for being clear and articulate and their current talk lacks specificity on the long-term "game plan". Yes, the war against terrorism will in fact be never-ending. But the high-intensity response to recent events won't necessarily be a long, drawn-out affair. The initial response might be complete within two months, to be followed by medium-intensity efforts for a few months after that and then the never-ending low-intensity effort to "police" the world and respond to each new flare-up in terrorist activity. Much of the "war" will be diplomatic maneuvering as well as a "carrot and stick" economic "war" (threat of sanctions, promise of aid).

Tuesday, September 18, 2001

Not much (out of the ordinary) seems to be going on. The White House is "digging in" a little more with additional concrete barriers and sensibly closing the section of E Street that goes right past the South "front" (actually the rear) of the White House. But, tourist access to the park areas (outside the fence) is unimpeded. So, I have no real complaints there. And everyone is very calm.

I see contrails way up in the sky sometimes. I presume that is the air patrol. Somebody told me that commercial flights are not allowed within 25 miles of downtown DC.

Helicopter patrols over the city continue, but seem less noticeable than last week. I haven't heard anything near my apartment this morning so far.

The question of the day (and the week and maybe even the month) is what will the President do and when will he do it. There is also the question of whether other terrorists will be stupid enough to do anything which will give the President even more of an excuse to take even bolder action. The terrorists may wisely decide to lay low for the time-being.

I may be going back to my apartment in New York City for a few days on Friday. On Saturdays I usually walk around all of lower Manhattan, including the World Trade Center area. I'm not sure what it will be like.

Monday, September 17, 2001

I ran into someone who lives fairly close to the Pentagon and he said that there was an second explosion at the Pentagon on Tuesday that was likely a fuel storage tank near the helipad where the attack occurred. That may have been what I heard at 10:10 a.m. on Tuesday when I was sitting in a hearing room in the Senate Dirksen office building.

I see that the Federal Reserve did in fact make their widely-rumored half-point cut in interest rates, before the market opened. Good move.

I have been spending a fair amount of time reading every shred of news about the attacks on the internet. I haven't seen even a minute of TV coverage except video clips on the internet. I'm more of the analytic type who wants to look at all the details in a logical order and I have absolutely no patience for the "droning" on TV.

Everybody wants to know what the stock market will do when it re-opens today. For my views, check out my daily stock market column. Click here. Personally, I won't even be watching what happens this morning. I'll probably be doing some reading.

I don't yet have a firm opinion on what steps should be taken to respond to the attacks. I'm not even sure whether it should be thought of as a single coordinated attack or multiple attacks. Loosely speaking, it's both.

Responsibility for the attacks is a tricky proposition. It all hinges on how you define responsibility. Lots of people and nations have been "encouraging" actions against the U.S. Does that mean they are responsible? Before Tuesday, the U.S. government turned a blind eye to the potential threat, treating terrorism as merely a "law enforcement" issue and not a "war". It appears that this is changing. I think it is unfortunate that the administration has focused so much attention on a personality, Bin Laden, instead of focusing ALL of their energy on the sources and supporting infrastructure of international terrorism. They've made a good start by talking more about "harboring" and "supporting", but still not enough. Even if Bin Laden is "taken out", there will be hundreds waiting in the wings to assume his role.

Still, it is too early to judge what path the U.S. will really embark on and how committed we will be to that path. History guides us. The Tonkin Gulf Resolution in the 60's had almost unanimous support, but look what happened with the ensuing conflict in View Nam. The administration is calling for a "long" war, but history has not been kind to protracted conflicts. Viet Nam was a disaster. The Korean conflict is STILL going after all these years. The Cold War could be considered a success since the Soviet Union "fell", but look at the costs, which included View Nam. It's still too soon to pass judgment on the President's "plan" since we haven't seen it's specification. Short-term, the American public are certainly willing to give the President a blank check -- but only on condition that he deliver results, and fairly quickly. The fight against terrorism in its many forms will be a never-ending battle (even after all the nations that support terrorism are reformed) and people understand that, but a high-intensity "war" over an extended period just won't fly. People want a determined, measured, appropriate and overwhelming response. But they want relief, are prepared to pay a high short-term price, and want their normal lives back.

As far as I can tell, the primary strategy of the administration will likely take the form of a series of ultimatums directed at countries known to support (in any way) international terrorists. Each would have the form "Here's what we expect you to do, here's your deadline. If you fail to comply, your regime will be changed." Note, the focus will NOT be on punishment or retribution, but to eliminate the potential for a future threat. Targeting individuals, movable "camps", and "shadowy" organizations is not going to achieve the desired goal. It is the whole "system" that encourages and supports the terrorists that will be "eliminated". That's my reading of the direction the administration is heading.

Vice President Cheney talks of a "dirty" war. There is support for that right now, but only to the extent that results are achieved very quickly. I doubt that many Americans are prepared to see death squads operating in the U.S. or a widespread suspension of civil liberties over an extended period of time. Again, focusing on individuals is not going to solve the problem. The terrorist "cells" that carried out the attacks last Tuesday may or may not have been specifically directed by nations in the Middle East, but it's the "cheerleaders" who encouraged (and even applauded) the attacks that have spawned the "system" of international terrorism that plagues us.

For the time-being, the President gets the benefit of the doubt. But make no mistake, the clock is ticking and the American people expect to see results.

My general advice to everyone: Turn off your TV and find something useful to do!

Sunday, September 16, 2001

Security continues to evolve. Last night, the White House area, including Lafayette Park and The Ellipse were open again. The Washington monument is still off limits. But the Jefferson and Lincoln Memorials are open. But there are still fences that they can close at a moment's notice. The officers, including Secret Service, are in good spirits and courteous.

Saturday night, a large Air Force helicopter landed and took off from the landing area (just grass, no formal pad) at the end of the Reflecting Pool while I was at the Lincoln Memorial. The approach is right over the Memorial itself. It was dark and when he took off without landing lights (just the little red and green running lights on) and accelerated towards the Memorial it was a rather eerie feeling, but rather impressive. There was a small candle-light vigil, just a couple dozen people. Mostly just a hundred or so tourists visiting the Memorial.

Things were rather calm last night. I haven't heard any helicopters all morning (it's 9:00 a.m. right now.)

I'll be heading out for my typical Sunday morning walk soon.

For my thoughts on the stock market, check out my daily stock market column. Click here.

Sunday night update...

Things were calm today and the weather was pleasantly cool and clear. There's a farmers market and their business seemed about as usual.

On my usual Sunday walk I walked past the Islamic Center of Massachusetts Avenue (near a lot of embassies). They have a tall minaret that's visible from the Connecticut Avenue viaduct over the Rock Creek Park "valley". A few people were going in, but there was nothing really going on outside. No evidence of any "backlash".

Security around the White House and monuments was much more relaxed.

I walked across the river by the Jefferson Memorial early Sunday evening and the traffic on I-395 going past the Pentagon was very heavy. But, you can't blame people for wanting to witness history.

I went to dinner at the the same restaurant as usual for a Sunday night and there was hardly anybody there. I've never seen it that slow. The fact that Congress is going to be mostly out until Thursday due to the Jewish holiday means that there is not a lot of "business" going on in the city.

I'm not hearing much in the way of circling helicopters right this evening. Just on occasion, but that's the case even in normal times.

Saturday, September 15, 2001

Security comes and goes in no predictable manner. For example, the Jefferson Memorial is now completely open (but with a number of police cars and officers). Yesterday they had put up a wooden snow fence and nobody could get in. Thursday you could get in, no problem. Tuesday and Wednesday they had yellow plastic blocking access. The entire area of the Lincoln Memorial was taped off Thursday night, but mostly open on Friday night except that the Memorial itself had a chain link fence around it (there was a candle light memorial and singing on Friday night.) This morning, the White House area, including Lafayette Park and The Ellipse was accessible. Yesterday, security was tighter. Sometimes you can walk down one side of 17th Street and sometimes not, or sometimes you can only walk south and not come up the street. Basically, "they" are still trying to figure. The police helicopter "patrol" seems much less frequent now. The officers are reasonably calm and in good spirits. But they are under a lot of pressure. We'll see what it's like in a week.

I walked across the river and along the bike path down to the airport. Very quiet over there. When it's in operation, the planes are less than a hundred feet over your head. Then I walked over to the Crystal City area and then the Pentagon City Mall area. The parking lot across the street (by Costco) was packed. The mall itself had a medium amount of traffic. I went to the top level of the parking garage and it had a great view of the damaged side of the Pentagon. I walked up the hill from the mall and the view was even better, but slightly further away. There were dozens of people up there, including one TV cameraman. The Pentagon workers had several cranes and were hauling materials or equipment up to the roof. You could see the large American flag hanging from the roof. I wanted to walk to the other side of the highway, but Virginia State Troopers were blocking the underpasses. I headed back to the mall area and took the Metro back to DC. They called out the Pentagon stop, but repeatedly told us not to get off unless you worked there.

I stopped in a Borders book store in downtown DC and it seemed to have the usual amount of Saturday afternoon traffic. Same for the downtown streets.

The weather is rather pleasant, but slightly cool.

I've added my "report" on the AEI panel discussion from yesterday below.

Friday, September 14, 2001

You can hear a police helicopter circling overhead every so often. My apartment is six blocks North of the White House. It is a little eerie, but Washington is a strange place even in "normal" times.

From 10:00 a.m. until 11:30 a.m. there was a panel discussion at the American Enterprise Institute For Public Policy Research (a DC "think tank") on the terrorist attacks. Panelists include former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Former U.N. Ambassador Jean Kirkpatrick, Laurie Mylroie (author of the book "Study of Revenge" which links Iraq with the first World Trade Center bombing), Michael Ledeen, advisor during the Reagan administration, and David Wurmser who has been affiliated with various DC "think tanks". My summary follows. These are not my views, but my attempt to summarize what was said. Bear in mind that the AEI "harbors" a lot of conservative thinkers.

Jean Kirkpatrick, moderator, noted a headline from the French newspaper Le Monde that hailed "We are all Americans". Essentially America is associated with "freedom". She is reluctant to refer to "religious fanaticism", since it is mostly political.

Laurie Mylroie says that it is extremely unlikely, even next to impossible that Bin Laden's worked alone. She noted his ties to Sudanese and Iraqi intelligence. She believes that Iraq was behind the 1993 World Trade Center bombing. She notes that once he decides to pursue a goal, Saddam never gives up. As bad as Tuesday was, she notes future attacks could be much worse once terrorists master biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons. She calls for a new review of the terrorist attacks of recent years and say the they were all a continuation of the Gulf War.

David Wurmser zeroed in on the need to focus of "states" and not individual terrorists or even groups of terrorists. He believes that Iraq is the key, but they are not alone. He calls this an "existential" war, an attack on freedom. The attack requires a "devastating response". He says that Yasser Arafat has cultured suicide bombers and has struggled against the west. He also notes that even Egypt has been supportive of terrorism by Palestinians. Many "praise and legitimize mass killing by suicide bombers". We're facing a coalition of radicals. This calls for a broad effort. He asks why we did not take seriously the words of our enemies when they said quite clearly that they intended to attack Americans.

Michael Ledeen offered a blunt assessment of how it happened. It's our destiny. It always happens this way. It's what we always do. We do not prepare. We feel secure... we have oceans to protect us. He does not believe that Saddam understands us. He offers four "specific" recommendations. First, abolish the executive order that forbids political assassination. We need to work with groups that will use assassination. He says we've become soft, self-indulgent, and weak. Our leaders have been unable or unwilling to do anything out the terrorist threat. The world has to see that we're serious. Second, we need to fire all the people who have failed us, including heads of intelligence, counter-terrorism, the FAA, etc. A lot of people need to go. Third, take off the restrictions on the Iraqi National Congress (INC) opposition group that prevent them from operating in Iraq. Ledeen applauds the comments from Deputy Defense Secretary Wolfowitz on Thursday that we must "end terrorist states". And fourth, we must move the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. I'm not sure why he thinks this is related, but he seemed to think it was an important message to send to those who are supporting the Palestinian uprising terrorist attacks which are attacks on Israel as a proxy for the U.S. Over "there" people see the U.S. and Israel as one and the same.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich thinks the administration has quickly moved in the right direction. He thinks Tuesday's events should be viewed as a "historic" event, not just a "political" event since now things will never be the same. He says "We are about defeating terrorism". Not merely fighting it, but defeating it. He has nine principles to guide us. First, we are at war. They have crossed the threshold this time. Pinprick responses are madness. Second, Enemies are allowed to be clever, courageous, and determined. We must seek victory. Time is always on the side of evil. Evil can always wait until you're not ready. Third, a vision of success is decisive. We must shoot for unconditional victory. The limited Gulf War goals were, in retrospect, a mistake. terrorists are a symptom. We must declare terrorism a crime against humanity. It's not hard to figure out who our enemies are, just read what they say. Iran, Iraq, and North Korea are enemies. Fourth, we must issue a series of ultimatums. Either the states stop supporting terrorism, or we will change the regime. If we don't, we now have vivid proof what the future will be like. Fifth, we must wage a coercive, not consensual campaign. It's civilization vs. terrorism. Swiss banks must set aside their secrecy so the flow of funds to terrorist groups can be stopped. We must replace, not punish regimes. Sixth, the campaign must be comprehensive. Reach out to all Muslims and offer them a future. Make clear that the people of a state are not our enemy. We need a Marshall Plan to help people. Seventh, the coalition must be the largest that supports the goal (eliminating terrorism). We must "recruit to the plan" (i.e., keep our standards high). Eighth, the stakes are enormous. The very fabric of freedom and the world are at risk. If we don't act soon, terrorists will soon master weapons of mass destruction. And ninth, our worldwide system is unavoidably vulnerable to state-sponsored terrorism. There is simply no way to protect all of our globalized, technologically sophisticated infrastructure. In a nutshell, Newt suggests that "they" are attempting to destroy our freedom.

Someone asked the obvious question: Why do "they" hate us so? Newt says it's because they oppose freedom. Free peoples are frightening to dictators. We are the symbol of freedom. He emphasizes that these people are fanatics, not fundamentalists. Arafat must lock up Palestinian terrorists and break up their groups. It is the "character" of regimes that supports terrorists. Ledeen says that "stability" is wrong and that America, with our belief in "creative destruction", should focus less on stability of states and more on what character they have. Participants say that it's okay for some states to sit on the fence, as long as they agree to not support the terrorists. Newt worried that in just seven weeks the "elite" in America will begin backpedaling and consider "the war" excessive. We need to "get back our lives".